Weekend estimates: Minions steal Independence Day crown from Transformers with record crushing $108 million/$127 million debut

Thanks to decent reviews and strong word of mouth from audiences, Minions: The Rise of Gru freeze rayed all expectations and earned a massive $108 million over the weekend. For now, in terms of animated openers, it’s on par with Shrek 2 but don’t be surprised if it winds up higher when the actuals kick in. It will also earn $127 million over the entire Fourth of July holiday. Furthermore, that is a record for biggest Fourth of July opening ahead of Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($97 million/$115 million). So suck it, Michael Bay! After earning $48 million on Friday, it will plunge 32% to $32 million on Saturday and then again by 15% to an estimated $27 million on Sunday alongside an extra $19 million on the Fourth of July. If Thor: Love and Thunder overperforms this coming week (Which is obviously possible), then this will be only the third time in history where we have two $100 million+ openers in a row After Shrek the Third and then Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($121 million and then $114 million in 2007) and Incredibles 2 and then Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($182 million and then $148 million in 2018). Part of this performance has to do with surprise franchise redemption and with over $200 million worldwide as of this weekend, $1 billion may be likely. Speaking of records, Stranger Things 4 will be the most watched show on Netflix according to the streaming service.

Even with Minions: The Rise of Gru exceeding expectations, Top Gun: Maverick just won’t die as it fell another 14% to $25 million for a likely cume of $571 million by the end of Monday for Tom Cruise’s 60th birthday. That said, the film already has over $1.1 billion worldwide and will get to $600 million domestic next week or the week after. The most interesting test this coming week is if it can survive the wrath of Thor during its possible final week in the top three. If so, then it will end its run as Paramount’s biggest grossing film ever (Counting Titanic’s 3D reissue from 10 years ago). If not, then it will end its run just above Star Wars: The Last Jedi and The Avengers. Honestly, nobody expected the movie to do this well. On a side note, it is the biggest movie that isn’t named Spider-Man: No Way Home to not play in china which is even more impressive.

Last week’s winner, Elvis fell from first to third with $19 million down 39% From its $31 million debut for a $67 million 10 day cume. It’ll be interesting to see when the film can get to $100 million and I’m pretty sure the strong word of mouth and holiday are the reasons it’s holding well this week.

Jurassic World: Dominion was no chump either earning $15 million (Down 41%) for $335 million by the end of Monday. Worldwide is currently at $828 million. Universal won’t have a hissy fit if it ends it’s run below $1 billion because it has made enough to probably make another trilogy or a spin off. Besides, they’ll be happy with Minions: The Rise of Gru possibly ending with $1 billion+ and this film ending with $900 million+.

The Black Phone rounded out the top five with $12 million and a cume of nearly $50 million by the end of the holiday. Had the movie opened with $12 million, it would have still been a solid little hit. But since it earned $23 million last week, it’s more than that.