Will Minions avoid franchise fatigue? (A movie news post)

After several delays, Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru finally hits theaters this Friday. Coming out five years after the last installment in the Despicable Me franchise, Minions: The Rise of Gru is hoping to not suffer a large drop off from Despicable Me 3’s $72 million debut. That said, it is expected to earn the lowest opening in the franchise since Uh.. the original Despicable Me which earned $56 million back in 2010 however, there are two things that could hopefully help it avoid a large fall. First, it’s Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 67% fresh which is better than expected and also an improvement over the first movie’s 55% rotten rating so it could be evidence that the movie could be this year’s The suicide Squad where the lousy first movie overperforms and the superior sequel doesn’t live up to it box office wise. However, I’m not expecting the movie to earn “only” $37 million compared to the original’s $115 million.

Second, this weekend is Fourth of July weekend so that could inflate the movie’s Sunday because of the holiday. It’s expected to earn as high as $60 million+ on opening weekend with $70 million-$80 million being the best case scenario. The target for the weekend is $67 million in three days and $79 million in four. But in order to make $65 million or more a sure thing, it has to make $26 million on opening day and then ease to $23 million on Saturday and then again to $17 million on Sunday for $67 million over the weekend and $79 million counting its $11 million Monday.

Come back on Friday for Thursday previews results, Saturday for opening day results, and Sunday for weekend estimates.

Friday box Office results: Elvis sings to solid $12 million but Top Gun could pull a weekend upset

The race for number one may be even closer than we thought with Elvis looking at $31 million on opening weekend after a $12 million opening day which was better than the $20 million Warner Bros predicted. And it did so even with its long running time. Although it’s reviews and A- Cinemascore could drive that figure a bit higher. That said, first place and over $31 million is on par with what I predicted on Wednesday. However, Top Gun: Maverick May overtake it for the rest of the weekend.

Second place went to what could be this weekend’s positive surprise, The Black Phone, which was under my radar in my prediction post, earned $10 million yesterday which was not much less than how much it was expected to earn on opening weekend. It’s reviews are great and it’s B+ Cinemascore is a nice surprise but it’s not gonna be in second place forever. That said, fourth place and $26 million is still a lot better than expected. With Jurassic World: Dominion and The Black Phone both over performing, Universal is killing it this summer. Will Minions: The Rise of Gru bowl them a box office turkey next week with $60 million+? If that one doesn’t suffer franchise fatigue and early reviews (Which are so far surprisingly better than Minions at 67% fresh probably because it has Gru in it) suggest so then probably.

Top Gun: Maverick fell another 26% from last Friday’s $11 million fourth Friday gross to $8 million with a cume just shy of $500 million and it will get there by the time you read this. It will come in at under $31 million with an unbelievable 30 day total of $523 million (Putting it on pace for $600 million) and probably over/under $1 billion worldwide by the end of the weekend. It may be in second place on Sunday morning but it could jump to first by Monday. It’s gonna be a close race for first place

Jurassic World: Dominion added $7 million yesterday for a likely third place finish and $29 million third week gross and a 17 day cume well over $300 million. Even with negative reviews, the audiences are beating the critics with its large numbers.

Yikes! Lightyear fell 74% from last Friday’s $20 million opening day to $5 million for a likely $21 million second week gross and 10 day cume of $93 million. I guess Pixar should just stick to originals. Hopefully this doesn’t translate to “Pixar is doomed!” Or “Pixar could send their next movie to Disney+ because of Lightyear blunder.”

This may be the first time in 6 years where we saw the entire top five gross $20 million or more per movie since July 22-24 2016 with Star Trek Beyond flopping with $59 million, The Secret Life of Pets adding $29 million, Lights Out shocking us all with over $21 million, Ice Age: Collision Course bombing with under $21 million and Ghostbusters earning $20 million in week 2. That’s for if Lightyear adds more than $20 million to its running tally. Also, if The Black Phone tops $25 million, it will be the first time since Memorial Day weekend 2013 where four movies make $25 million or more on the same weekend with Fast and Furious 6 opening to $97 million, The Hangover Part 3 blundering with $41 million, Star Trek Into Darkness adding $37 million in week 2, and Epic debuting to $33 million.

Tom Hanks and Tom Cruise duke it out in pre-Minions box office battle (A movie news post)

In the battle of the older adult oriented movies, It’s Elvis vs Top Gun: Maverick. Both movies are fighting for top spot with the former eying $30 million+ and the latter doing so well that it could return to the top of the box office for at least one week with $34 million+. Elvis is earning great reviews and will take first place… on opening day with $13 million and then settle for second with $31 million on opening weekend. It could smash expectations and earn as high as $45 million-$50 million because of great reviews but because of the 2.5 hour running time, my money is on Top Gun: Maverick easily returning to first place with $37 million which would push the movie to $500 million domestic and maybe put it on pace to $600 million. This weekend will determine wether or not it alongside its Korea debut will push it to $1 billion in just five weeks of release. If not then it will do so next week. Meanwhile, Jurassic World: Dominion will earn $29 million this weekend and Lightyear will drop 50% to $25 million giving this weekend more depth. Now this is gonna be interesting.

Weekend estimates: Dinosaurs throw Lightyear out of orbit $58 million to $51 million as Top Gun continues unexpected $1 billion march

Well, this wasn’t supposed to happen. After settling for second place on Friday with $15 million behind Lightyear’s $20 million, Jurassic World: Dominion rebounded by repeating in first place with $58 million down 60% from last week’s $145 million debut and not too far off from the 58% second week drop off to $60 million for Fallen Kingdom. After a $21 million second Saturday gross, it fell just 5% because of the holidays to $20 million on Sunday. It will reach $250 million by Monday. It already has earned $622 million worldwide and could end up with $900 million at best. It may or may not be number one next week depending on how big Elvis is (It’s still looking like $35 million-$55 million) but audiences are seeming to not mind this critically panned franchise finale.

Ouch. Lightyear completely missed expectations altogether earning “just” $51 million. After earning first place with $20 million, it slid down to second place and 21% to $16 million on Saturday and then down to third place with $14 million on Sunday. Despite being a fairly good movie, Lightyear did not work its magic to be a big hit. This is way below the $75 million I expected and given the popularity of the Toy Story franchise, it should have opened better than this. It still opened Better than Ratatouille and Coco ($47 million and $50 million respectively) and they still legged to $200 million. Lightyear could recover and do the same exact thing but unfortunately, it has direct competition in less than two weeks and that’s going to prevent its prophets from getting any better.

Top Gun: Maverick is just… wow. Okay! The Tom Cruise sequel fell only 15% from last week’s. $51 million third week gross to $44 million for a 4 week cume of $466 million and a likely $475 million cume by Monday thanks to having the benefit of being the movie to see for Father’s Day. That is the second biggest fourth week gross for any movie behind only Avatar. It had a fourth week gross bigger than every MCU film and every Star Wars film. Let that sink in. It should get to $500 million this coming weekend depending on how big of an obstacle Elvis turns out to be. And with a likely $900 million global cume by Monday, it’s definitely getting to $1 billion worldwide. Question is “When?” If it holds well (Again!) against Elvis this coming week, then it will get there then. Now will it get to $600 million domestic making it one of the biggest movies ever? If it continues to perform like this against Elvis, Minions: The Rise of Gru and Thor: Love and Thunder in the next three weeks, then probably. But is it going to end with $700 million or $800 million domestic? Probably not. Now let’s just say that the best movie of the year really deserves to overperform like this. What amazes me is that it is playing like… you know what? Forget superhero movies! Forget grown up movies! It’s a grown up movie that’s playing like a leggy as heck kids movie!

Friday box Office results: Lightyear peters out with embarrassing $20 million

Pixar’s return to theaters was quite bumpy as Lightyear earned a meh $20 million on opening day for a possible $51 million-$55 million opening. That’s much lower than expected considering it’s good reviews and A- Cinemascore. For Pixar after having three movies in a row before it get sent to Disney+, it’s still a darn good opening but this doesn’t necessarily mean they’re doomed. Hopefully this isn’t a sign of “Egad! Lightyear made nothing on a $200 million budget! We’re back to having Pixar’s future movies go straight to Disney+!” And more of “Yeah sure it didn’t do as well as we hoped but at least Lightyear made way more on opening weekend than Onward.” Alas, with $54 million and a second place finish behind Jurassic World: Dominion, we may have our fourth Pixar flop after The Good Dinosaur, Cars 3 and Onward. Wow! This is not a happy paragraph!

Jurassic World: Dominion May have slipped to second place with $15 million down 74% from last Friday but it’s looking to rebound and earn first place over the weekend with $58 million and about $250 million after just 10 days. Heck it may pull in $67 million due to the Juneteenth holiday.

Lightyear’s loss was Top Gun: Maverick’s gain as the terrific Tom Cruise sequel is taking the benefit of being the perfect movie for Father’s Day and fell just 23% to $10 million for a likely $41 million+ fourth week gross and a 4 week cume of $464 million or so. $500 million+ domestic alongside $1 billion worldwide is looking more and more likely every day. And it’s already the biggest grossing film in Cruise’s career surpassing Mission Impossible: Fallout.

Will Lightyear take Pixar to infinity and beyond? (A movie news post)

After having three movies in a row skip theaters, Pixar is back in multiplexes this weekend with Lightyear. The Chris Evans starring cartoon is hoping for a $70 million-$85 million debut this weekend and it could top Sonic the Hedgehog 2s $72 million debut from earlier this year to score the biggest G, PG or R rated opening of the pandemic era. Reviews are below average for Pixar but at 82% fresh they’re still great regardless. $70 million-$85 million does seem like enough for Disney to allow Pixar to release their movies in theaters again $90 million-$100 million does sound like the best case scenario for now but I’m not going that high. Of course this Sunday is Father’s Day and that could inflate the film’s opening weekend. In case the movie beats expectations, I’m going with $75 million but In order for that number to be a sure thing, it would have to earn $30 million on Friday and then ease to $23 million on Saturday and then $21 million on Father’s Day. Hopefully I’m underestimating the film and it instead earns $85 million but for now, $75 million is the target. Come back on Friday for Thursday previews results (If they’re good enough to be reported), Saturday for opening day results, and Sunday for weekend estimates.

Box Office: Jurassic World: Dominion dominates with superb $145 million as Top Gun continues quest for $1 billion global

Bad reviews did not stop Universal’s Jurassic World: Dominion from earning the biggest non superhero opening of the Pandemic era. Over the weekend, the Chris Pratt/Bryce Dallas Howard franchise caper (Which actually wasn’t that bad to be honest) debuted to a boffo $145 million which was just $3 million lower than Fallen Kingdom and much better than the $132 million I expected so that is a big win for Universal (Who hasn’t had a big hit before outside Dreamworks’ (dynamite) The Bad Guys). An A- Cinemascore and a user score of 81% suggest a total of over $400 million domestic however, weak reviews and the sheer amount of competition in the next few weeks (Including Lightyear which is earning much better reviews at 84% fresh) May prevent the movie from topping Fallen Kingdom.

In case you were curious, the dinosaurs did not prevent Tom Cruise’s fighter plane from going any higher as the film fell just 42% from last week to $51 million for a boffo $395 million American cume and $748 million overall. In comparison, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness currently has $398 million domestic and the phenomenal Tom Cruise sequel will probably get to $400 million by the time you read this before the MCU film does. Even with competition from Lightyear this week (I will do a box office prediction post on it probably tomorrow or Thursday), Elvis (Which is looking at $35 million-$55 million with $60 million being the best case scenario) next week, Minions: The Rise of Gru (Which is looking at $65 million-$80 million on opening weekend) the week after and Thor: Love and Thunder (Whose ticket sales went live beginning yesterday) on July 8th, $500 million+ domestic is looking more and more likely every week. While $600 million May just be extra credit. Now I know you all are asking: Will it get to $1 billion? Again, with $748 million so far, Probably.

Friday box Office results: Jurassic World: Dominion eats critics with Dino-Myte $59 million opening day and A- Cinemascore

Even with the worst reviews ever in the Jurassic franchise, Jurassic World: Dominion is annihilating expectations earning a huge $59 million opening day for a possible $142 million debut which is better than the $132 million I predicted on Thursday. It will also be just 4% below Fallen Kingdom’s $148 million opening total. This includes the $18 million it earned in Thursday previews. While the critics booed at pretty much everything the movie has to offer, the audiences actually didn’t mind it at all awarding it an A- Cinemascore. Unless it’s frontloaded, it will top Finding Dory to secure the fourth biggest June Opening ever meaning the top five biggest June openings will contain all three Jurassic World films and two “part two” Pixar monsters (Finding Dory and Incredibles 2). A $142 million debut will give it the largest non-superhero opening of the pandemic era.

And in case you were curious, the dinosaurs did not stop Tom Cruise’s fighter plane from going any further at all as Top Gun: Maverick fell “just” 44% to $14 million for a likely $50 million+ third week gross and a $395 million domestic total that will be closing in on Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. If it continues to pace well against Lightyear next weekend followed by Elvis, Minions: The Rise of Gru and Thor: Love and Thunder in the next few weeks, it will end up being Cruise’s first $1 billion+ grosser as it is already at $700 million+ worldwide. It will top Aladdin to be the biggest Memorial Day grosser in the US by the time you read this.

Will Jurassic World: Dominion overcome poor reviews? (A movie news post)

Earlier in the summer movie blockbuster season, Jurassic World: Dominion was looking at an opening that would possibly get to $200 million. Unfortunately, with the worst reviews in the franchise at 38% rotten, that’s probably not gonna be the case. Instead the movie is tracking for an opening of $125 million or more. In fact, it’s looking at a debut in between Top Gun: Maverick ($126 million) and The Batman ($134 million). I was looking forward to it but now when I see it on Saturday, I may be looking at the year’s biggest disappointment. Unless of course the audience thinks Rotten Tomatoes has gone off the rails again.(Think Uncharted which got good audience reception despite a 40% Rotten Tomatoes score). Anyway, look for $132 million on opening weekend and weak legs due to the sheer amount of competition consisting of possibly better films coming in the next few weeks (Minus Minions: The Rise of Gru of course) and strong holdover business from Top Gun: Maverick. And with next week’s release of Pixar’s Lightyear tracking for $90 million-$120 million with a Chance of possibly earning much better reviews, don’t expect the movie to earn first place again.

Box office: Maverick remains brisk seller with supersonic $90 million

For the second week in a row, Top Gun: Maverick managed to shatter expectations easing just 29% from its $126 million debut last weekend to $90 million for stupefying 10 day total of $295 million. That actually gives it the smallest week to week drop off ever for a $100 million+ opener just ahead of Shrek 2’s 33% drop off from 2004. It’s also the 8th biggest second week gross of all time behind Beauty and the Beast and 6 movies that are part of a stupidly popular franchise (The Avengers, Jurassic World, Black Panther, Avengers: Infinity War, Avengers: Endgame and Star Wars: The Force Awakens). Not only did it make more in week 2 than The Batman ($66 million) and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($61 million) despite opening lower than those two films ($134 million and $187 million respectively) but it also made more in its second week of release than holiday season behemoth Spider-Man: No Way Home (which earned $84 million after a $260 million debut due to its second Friday landing on Christmas Eve). Let that sink in.

Now the reasons for Top Gun: Maverick falling only 29% are simple. First, incredible reviews and astronomical word of mouth. Second, there were either people who missed out last week or people who just wanted to see it again. And finally, it is indeed an amazing film (In fact it’s my favorite movie this year thus far (Alongside The Batman, Sonic the Hedgehog 2 and The Bad Guys) and I don’t know if anything else this year will ever top it but they will come close. Only Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness was solid even though it wasn’t the best film in the MCU. Hopefully I’ll wind up enjoying Thor: Love and Thunder a lot more. Meanwhile Turning Red was great but not Pixar’s best film but there is a 96% chance I’ll enjoy Lightyear more. Disney+’s Chip N Dale: Rescue Rangers May not be a modern day masterpiece but it’s surprisingly on the best movies of 2022 list.

And Disney+’s (terrific) Obi Wan Kenobi and Netflix’s (dynamite) Stranger Things 4 Volume 1 didn’t hurt the movie either. As the latter broke records. If the Tom Cruise movie holds well against Universal’s Jurassic World: Dominion (Which I’m seeing on Saturday and May open to as high as $200 million) on Friday, Pixar’s Lightyear (Which May open to as high as $100 million) next week, Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru on July 1st and Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder on July 8th, then it may wind up ending the year as the biggest of the summer (And maybe the year depending on Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Avatar: The Way of Water’s performances) and maybe one of the biggest grossing films ever on the domestic front. And of course it’s on pace to top Aladdin (2019) as the biggest Memorial Day release ever but it might be the biggest film Paramount ever did that has nothing to do with a historical sinking ship.

We can already see James Cameron watching every move Tom Cruise makes as he’s sitting down petting his cat hoping Avatar: The Way of Water sneak attacks Top Gun: Maverick this holiday season.