Weekend estimates: Top Gun flies high with record $124 million/$151 million debut

Top Gun: Maverick (Which I’m seeing today) actually managed to open on the very high end of expectations earning a robust $124 million over the three day weekend and $151 million if you take Monday into account. That’s actually on par with how much I expected the film to earn when the Opening day results came in and much better than the $96 million/$116 million that I predicted it would earn before actually earning more in three days than it was expected to earn in four. Now that $19.3 million Thursday previews number was an indication that the movie was going to break tons of records. It only broke two records in the end (Biggest Paramount debut and biggest opening for Tom Cruise). Breaking the weekend down, after earning $52 million on Friday (Which was actually up from the $51 million that was reported yesterday), it fell 27% to $38 million on Saturday and then slid just 11% to an estimated $34 million on Sunday for $124 million on opening weekend and it’s also estimated to earn $27 million on Monday for a four day haul of $151 million. Despite opening on the high end of expectations, it’s possible that the two episode series premiere of Lucasfilms’ (Terrific so far) Obi Wan Kenobi on Disney+ and Netflix’s (Dynamite) first part of the new season of Stranger Things might have steered it away from breaking more than just two box office records. That said, with stellar reviews and incredible word of mouth, It could go up on Monday and Tuesday and the studio is hoping the film has good legs in the long run. Unfortunately, Jurassic World: Dominion (Which May go as high as $200 million on opening weekend) hits theaters in less than two weeks so that’s probably going to prevent it from being in theaters for a while.

Friday box Office results: Maverick is out of the Danger Zone with monster $51 million

When Top Gun: Maverick earned $19.3 million in Thursday previews, I knew it was gonna destroy expectations but I didn’t know how much it was gonna end up with. Possibilities such as “It’s gonna break a ton of records!” And “It’s gonna open bigger than Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and possibly earn $200 million.” were endless. In the end, the movie still made more than expected earning a whopping $51 million last night for a likely $124 million/$152 million debut which is amazing for the film industry. But of course, with glowing reviews (97% fresh) and phenomenal word of mouth (A user score of nearly 100% fresh and an A+ Cinemascore to go with it) could drive it higher. That said, its much better than the $96 million/$116 million I predicted on Tuesday and it’s going to make more in three days than it was expected to make in four. It’s also easily the largest opening ever for Tom Cruise and the biggest opening for Paramount surpassing Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen (Iron Man 2 made $128 million but Disney owns that film despite being made by Paramount). Oh yeah. And it’s also going to easily have the largest memorial day opening ever.

Box Office: Maverick soars with boffo $19.3 million in Thursday previews

Yesterday, it was announced by Paramount that Top Gun: Maverick would open in 4,735 theaters which made it the widest opening for any movie in existence beating out The Lion King from back in 2019. Now after a few delays, the movie is finally out and is getting off to an enormous start earning a whopping $19.3 million in Thursday previews last night including however much it earned during the fan screening earlier this week. Of course it’s not like people rushed to see the movie on Thursday night before everyone else sees it on Friday. So maybe it could be leggy and probably make more on opening weekend than how much the original Top Gun made in its entire original 1986 theater run.

And with this weekend being Memorial Day weekend, comparisons to other films are going to be complicated. But all I can say is that my $96 million/$116 million prediction may be too low. Even The Avengers and Jurassic World earned $18 million each on Thursday night previews for $200 million+ openings. I don’t know if Top Gun: Maverick is going to reach $200 million or more on opening weekend. Another thing is that it is going to obliterate War of the Worlds’ $64 million debut to secure the biggest debut for Tom cruise. I wouldn’t be surprised at this rate if it makes $64 million or way more on opening day alone.

Also, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen’s $108 million debut may be in jeopardy as well giving Maverick the largest opening for Paramount. We’ll get a better idea of how high Maverick will soar once Friday’s numbers get reported but because of its amazing reviews, it could top Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ $187 million debut. And yes, the Memorial Day record is going to fall too.

How high will Maverick fly? (A movie news post)

After being delayed plenty of times, Paramount’s long awaited Top Gun: Maverick finally hits theaters on Friday (Or Thursday night if your going to the Thursday night screenings) and is hoping to not only score the biggest debut ever for Tom Cruise but also Paramount’s biggest opening since Transformers: Age of Extinction back in 2014. Currently it is tracking for a debut of $95 million-$130 million meaning it has a legitimate shot at scoring the biggest opening for the studio which that record is currently held by Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen at $108 million (Iron Man 2 earned $128 million but Disney owns that movie despite being made by Paramount)

Positioning the movie for a monster opening is hype. Many people who love Top Gun as a movie (Such as myself) have been itching to see the movie for a long time. The other factor that could be doing so is the reviews which are some of the best of the year and of all time (It’s Rotten Tomatoes score currently sits at 97% fresh). Of course it does come out on memorial day weekend so it’s Sunday number might be inflated by the holiday. It could zoom past $100 million in three days but I’m go on the safe side and predict $96 million over the three day weekend and $116 million counting Monday.

Of course it would have to earn close to $40 million on Friday alone for that to happen and then ease down to $31 million on Saturday and then $25 million on Sunday and earn an extra $19 million on Monday. But I want to be surprised by its debut.

So come back on Friday for the Thursday previews number, Saturday for the opening day results, Sunday for the weekend estimates and maybe Tuesday for the final numbers.

Friday box office results: Doctor Strange abracadabras past The Avengers with eye watering $90 million

Maybe I should stop predicting $158 million for every big future MCU film because Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness is already surpassing expectations earning a colossal $90 million last night for a possible over/under $200 million debut. That would easily give it the second biggest opening of the pandemic era behind Spider-Man: No Way Home. I’m pretty sure the decent reviews will probably propel it above The Avengers for biggest May opening however, what May hold it back from doing so is the B+ Cinemascore (Which is below the franchise average Cinemascore of “A”) indicating that people either thought it was good for a Sam Raimi film but not the best MCU film or straight up disappointing (Even though it’s user score is 88% fresh which could catapult it over The Avengers) Although it’s terrific for a horror film (Which it kind of gives off that “Marvel meets Stranger Things” sort of vibes from what i understand) so I guess you could say it’s better than Eternals in terms of MCU films.

If it tops $192 million, it will earn the second biggest May opening behind only The Avengers. Either way, it’s still better than expected and it will still give Sam Raimi his biggest debut ever. Just note that it’s opening day number is the 7th biggest ever and is not too far behind the $91 million earned by Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 and just ahead of the $89 million earned by Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (Both of which were frontloaded and since Multiverse of Madness is part of the MCU, it should have better opening weekend legs than both of those films). I’m expecting it to earn under $200 million during the Sunday estimates only for it to rise above that number by Monday afternoon.

Box office: Doctor Strange brews up monster $36 million in Thursday previews

Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness got off to a robust start earning $36 million in Thursday previews positioning the film for a debut of $179 million-$234 million depending on its legs and word of mouth (It has 77% Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes from the critics). That’s lower than the $39 million earned by Avengers: Infinity War in 2018 but keep in mind that it wound up having better opening weekend legs than the last two Star Wars episodes and the final Harry Potter film so there’s a good chance that multiverse of madness could score one of the largest opening weekends ever if it’s Cinemascore is higher than B+. If it earns an A, it will easily get to $200 million.

However, it does seem like that (Like Spider-Man: No Way Home before earning $260 million) my $158 million prediction may be obliterated. But we’ll see. For now, I’m upping my prediction to $191 million. Although at this rate, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s opening weekend number has a nine digit number that begins with “2”. We’ll get a better idea of how it’s really gonna do once the Friday numbers trickle in.

Doctor Strange looks to start the Big Summer Box Office Madness (A movie news post)

After a busy April, Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness looks to begin the summer by possibly earning the second biggest debut of the pandemic era. It is tracking for an opening weekend of $150 million-$200 million according to Disney. However, I wouldn’t be shocked if it became only the ninth film in history to make $200 million or more. Currently there are eight movies that made that much on opening weekend and all eight of them earned positive reviews and a Cinemascore of either an A or A+. As of this post, Doctor Strange 2’s Rotten Tomatoes score is 80% Fresh. Typical for an MCU film but if the movie earns an A on Cinemascore, then it will blast past $200 million on opening weekend.

I will be shocked however if it beats expectations and all of a sudden comes out of nowhere and breaks records. That is IF it turns out to be more of an Endgame sequel as opposed to a Doctor Strange sequel. Then again, I predicted Spider-Man: No Way Home to only earn $158 million before skyrocketing to $260 million in the end. However, just to be on the safe side, I’m predicting $158 million in case it goes crazy again like the Tom Holland/Zendaya Ft. Tobey Maguire and Andrew Garfield sequel did and winds up opening bigger than every Star Wars film.

Come back on Friday for Thursday night previews results, Saturday for opening day results, and Sunday for weekend estimates.