Spider-Man: No Way Home got off to a much faster than expected start yesterday earning a superior $121 million on opening day alone. That’s the largest December opening day ever surpassing Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ $119 million. For all opening days, it sits behind only Avengers: Endgame ($157 million). Minus the $50 million it’s earned in Thursday previews and it’s pure Friday number is $71 million which gives it the second largest pure Friday number ever also behind only Avengers: Endgame.
Right now it’s looking at an opening of $240 million-$248 million which may sound crazy but that’s how much it’s going to make on opening weekend anyway. However, astronomical reviews, white hot buzz and overwhelmingly positive word of mouth (It earned an A+ Cinemascore which was on par with Avengers: Endgame. In fact it’s the MCU’s 4th A+ score after The Avengers, Black Panther and Avengers: Endgame and the best Cinemascore ever for a live action Spider-Man film and the second one for Spider-Man films in general after Into the Spider-Verse) may catapult the Tom Holland/Zendaya/Benedict Cumberbach sequel above $250 million and nab the biggest December debut ever.
A $245 million opening will make the film zoom past Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings’ entire domestic total of $224 million to become the biggest hit of the pandemic in just its opening weekend alone which is absolutely insane.
Well, it looks like Spider-Man: No Way Home may take the pandemic era to a whole new level. Last night the Tom Holland/Zendaya sequel earned a gigantic $50 million in Thursday previews. That gives it the third biggest Thursday previews gross ever behind only Star Wars: The Force Awakens ($57 million) and Avengers: Endgame ($60 million). Oh yeah and not only did it crush Black Widow’s $13 million Thursday previews gross from earlier this year but it also vaulted over the Scarlett Johansson actioner’s $39 million opening day in Thursday previews alone.
Now that $50 million Thursday previews number is just above the $49 million Fri-Sun debut of Halloween Kills in terms of biggest openings of the pandemic while its only $5 million below the $55 million Fri-Sun debut of No Time to Die. So the fact that it’s Thursday previews number wound up way above expectations is impressive.
Now now I know what your thinking! Yes, my $158 million prediction could wind up being toast and yes becoming only the 8th film in history to debut to $200 million or more is possible at this rate while $250 million or more isn’t out of the question. If the movie debuts to $234 million, then it will become the biggest grossing film of the pandemic in just its opening weekend.
There is a possibility that it will now open to $192 million-$273 million depending on how it does on opening day and the rest of the weekend. Yes, white hot buzz, Incredible reviews and superb word of mouth may catapult the movie over Star Wars: The Force Awakens and it’s $247 million debut to snag the biggest December opening ever but I have a feeling that since it’s an “Everybody in the pool!” Event like Avengers: Endgame and not a fanboy driven film like any of the Star Wars films, it may not be as frontloaded.
For now, I’m upping my prediction to $200 million but don’t be surprised if “OMG! Best movie since Endgame!” reactions drive it higher than that.
Tomorrow (Or tonight if your going to the advance screening) sees the release of Sony’s wildly anticipated Spider-Man: No Way Home. As I said on Tuesday, it’s tracking for somewhere between $150 million-$185 million (I predicted $158 million in case the movie smashes expectations but I wouldn’t surprised if it opened much bigger) and it’s reviews are incredible. Now the one big question concerning the movie is how many records is it going to break? Well I’m gonna give my thoughts on records that are likely or unlikely to break. Well. Here goes nothing.
Largest pandemic era debut: Now this is one of the records that it’s definitely going to crush. Because guess who’s gonna hold this record for the next 48 hours?! Venom: Let there be Carnage and it’s $90 million debut! If your friendly neighborhood all of a sudden doesn’t defeat the symbiote monster, then the industry is going to panic.
Largest Non-Star Wars December opening: This is another easy record it’s gonna destroy. As this record is currently held by…. The Hobbit at $84 million! This does actually mean Spidey is going to have an easy time opening much bigger than any of the Middle Earth films. Now it’s probably gonna swing past the opening weekends of Lord of the Rings: Fellowship of the Ring, The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies, Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers and maybe Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King and The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug ($47 million, $54 million, $62 million, $72 million, and $73 million) all on opening day alone but opening weekend wise, it’s definitely opening bigger than every single film in that franchise. If we’re talking December films that aren’t related to Middle Earth or Star Wars, then yes, Will Smith’s I Am Legend and it’s $77 million opening from nearly a decade and a half is going to be toast.
Biggest debut for Sony: This record is probably going to be easier than a walk in a park to break as it’s currently held by (Obviously) Spider-Man 3 at $151 million. If this studio record doesn’t fall, then something isn’t right. And yes, it may open bigger than how much most future Sony films will make in total if it surpasses expectations.
Biggest hit of the pandemic: Now there may be a best case scenario where it overtakes Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings to become the biggest domestic hit of the pandemic in just its opening weekend if it opens faster than expected but there is a possibility where it swings past Black Widow to become the third biggest hit of the pandemic in its first three days. Oh yeah! And while we’re still on this topic, maybe if it does better than anticipated, it could open bigger than the domestic totals for every 2020 film (Including Bad Boys For Life) and snag the largest opening for any movie since Avengers: Endgame!
Biggest December opening: This one is a maybe. Yes it’ll place itself in the top five largest December openings ever, yes it’s probably gonna open bigger than Rogue One (Happy 5th anniversary to that one by the way!) and it’s $155 million debut, yes it might open bigger than the $177 million opening of Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker but opening bigger than the $220 million earned by Star Wars: The Last Jedi and the $247 million snagged by Star Wars: The Force Awakens may be a bit of a stretch. But if the movie does crush expectations, then this record may fall. I mean its pre sales were bigger than every Star Wars film so that’s why I said, this one is a maybe. On a side note if This record does indeed fall, then the top three largest debuts of all time will be all MCU films.
Biggest Not-A-Disney-Movie debut ever: Yes you can also count it as a Disney movie since it is part of the MCU. However, it’s technically made by Sony with Disney helping out. That does mean it has a surprise shot at topping the $208 million earned by Universal’s Jurassic World if it winds up doing better than expected. Although that would mean the entire top five largest debuts of all time list will include nothing but Marvel and Star Wars movies.
And there you have it! And no I did not include unlikely records like biggest debut ever cause this would take forever to finish. These are the records I think the movie will break and may break. Come back tomorrow for Thursday previews results, Saturday for opening day results and Sunday for the weekend estimates and maybe my review of the movie.
We are just three days away from the release of Sony’s highly anticipated Spider-Man: No Way Home. The film is tracking for an opening weekend between $150 million-$185 million. What would surprise me though is an opening weekend above $200 million. And yes, it is likely to crush the $151 million debut of Spider-Man 3 for the biggest debut ever for Sony.
Helping the movie earn one of the biggest December debuts ever are a few factors. First of all, the buzz is loud and it’s as big as Endgame. Secondly, it has the second biggest pre sales for any movie behind Endgame. And finally, the reviews are overwhelmingly positive and it’s Rotten Tomatoes score is currently sitting at 98% fresh (It did start out at 100% but it’s still one of the best reviewed movies of the year) making it one of the best reviewed comic book movies of all time. Currently, it sits above Black Panther for best reviewed film in the MCU.
As for its box office opening weekend chances, I’m going with $158 million in case the movie crushes expectations but do not be surprised if it winds up even higher. Come back on Friday for Thursday preview results, Saturday for opening day results and Sunday for opening weekend estimates and hopefully a review.
We are just one week away from next Friday’s release of Sony’s hotly anticipated Spider-Man: No Way Home (Which I’m seeing next Saturday night) and it wound up earning the biggest pre-sales for any movie in existence since Avengers: Endgame. Well, it earned the second biggest pre sales for any movie behind only that Anthony and Joe Russo helmed masterpiece meaning it had the biggest pre-sales for any December release surpassing the entire Star Wars sequel trilogy alongside Rogue One.
Now you may be wondering, yes. It is going to crush the record for largest opening of the pandemic (Currently held by Sony’s own Venom: Let there be Carnage at $90 million) but by how much is the big question. While it is going to have the biggest non-Star Wars December debut ever meaning the web slinger will have an easy time debuting much bigger than any of the Middle Earth films, there is a possibility of it making $150 million or more during its debut.
That would vault it over the $155 million debut of Rogue One. If it’s closer in quality to Avengers: Endgame (Which by the way is my favorite movie ever just ahead of Infinity War but that’s a conversation for another day) than Spider-Man 3 (Which is by far the worst Spider-Man movie ever), then it will have a shot at toppling Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’s $177 million debut to have the biggest opening for any movie since Endgame and maybe swinging past Black Widow’s $183 million domestic total (Although it should have been $674 million considering it was the best movie I’ve seen this year but I digress) to be the third biggest hit of the pandemic in just its first three days.
The $220 million and $247 million debuts of Star Wars: The Last Jedi and Star Wars: The Force Awakens on the other hand are bridges too far to cross. Now since it is the only Marvel movie this year to play in China (Unless Eternals played there) since they were too pathetic to show Black Widow and Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings wasn’t shown there either for reasons I can’t explain, it may be the biggest hit of the pandemic domestically, overseas, and worldwide.
It should have no trouble overtaking Shang Chi in America and the biggest Hollywood film overall is No Time to Die which it may overtake as well so $1 billion may be in the cards. So let’s say it makes $400 million or more in America plus whatever it makes overseas during its entire run. That would be about $1.4 billion in global revenue.
Now the reason it’s destroying every movie that isn’t named Avengers: Endgame in pre-sales is because of the high anticipation and loud buzz the movie is earning. Now this may be the last time we’re ever gonna see a movie with this much hype and/or buzz for a while because (And yes there are other exciting movies to look forward to in the future like Sonic the Hedgehog 2 (Which just got a dynamite trailer last night during The Game Awards and is high on my 2022 film anticipation list) and Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Part 1 (Which is my most anticipated film next year making it the first year since 2009 where my most anticipated film isn’t a Disney movie) for instance) there is not gonna be another movie in the future with this kind of buzz.
Now yes, there is going to be other MCU stuff to look forward to in the next few years wether it be a movie suited for theaters like the terrific Black Widow or the superb Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings or a Disney+ show like Wandavision (Which was my favorite show this year, natch!), Loki (Which had an intriguing first season) or (The so far darn good) Hawkeye. However, none of them are going to have the same kind of loud buzz as No Way Home. It’s not like Sam Raimi’s Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness or Brie Larson’s The Marvels (Now my most anticipated film of 2023 majorly because Brie Larson is a terrific actress) or (God forbid) Scarlett Johansson’s Black Widow: The Squeakquel (Where Natasha (After being brought back to the franchise by the fans) and Yelena team up with Carol, Wanda and Kate Bishop to stop Kang the Conqueror after the death of Clint Barton) is gonna be in the same buzz/hype ballpark as Avengers: Infinity War or Avengers: Endgame.
And after all, if a movie has Marvel’s logo slapped onto the title, people are gonna show up anyway.
Mathew's Entertainment stuff 