Dune: Part Two looks to wake up the box office (A movie news post)

Well, it’s finally coming! After being delayed from November 3rd, 2023 to March 2024 due to the strikes, Dune: Part Two is finally about to hit theaters. Three weeks ago, the film landed on tracking with $65 million or more. Since then, it has ballooned to $80 million+. Overseas, it’s tracking for $80 million-$90 million for a $170 million global debut. Back at home, it’s tracking for $80 million or more on opening weekend (Though Warner Bros is playing it safe and sticking with $65 million). Yeah sure there is such thing as crazy high expectations of $90 million-$120 million and/or making more on opening weekend than how much the first movie from 2021 earned in its entire release (which made $108 million domestic off a $41 million debut amid also being available on Max).

There are a few factors as to why it could overindex and scream past $100 million. First and foremost, there is pent up demand for big movies in theaters. Yeah sure, Bob Marley: One Love made $28 million on opening weekend two weeks ago but that wasn’t enough to get the industry out of hibernation. Secondly, while the original earned 83% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, this one is earning even better reviews at 97% fresh. Yes, both factors could propel the movie higher than the original’s entire $108 million domestic cume in just one weekend but I’m going to play it safe and predict close to $80 million for the weekend.

For that to happen, it needs to earn $31 million on opening day and then ease to $26 million on Saturday and then again to $21 million on Sunday for a $79 million debut. Whether it makes $130 million or $65 million on opening weekend, its debut will still be incredible for a Denis Villeneuve-helmed movie. But let’s not be Debbie downers if it “only” makes $69 million. Of note, it earned $2 million in this past Sunday’s IMAX showing and that will melt into the Thursday previews gross.

Let the spice flow.

Will March releases breathe life into the box office? (A movie news post)

Just like the real world, winter has been pretty awful for moviegoing. That was until last week’s release of Bob Marley: One Love earned a staggering $51 million in its first six days of release including $17 million in its first two days (Yes that included a Valentine’s Day boosted $14 million on opening day) and a better than expected $33 million Presidents’ Day haul including $28 million on opening weekend (Which by the way actually beat Mean Girls’ opening by more than a few thousand to secure the year’s biggest opening thus far). This week, it’s expected to dominate one more winter week with $16 million and a solid hold.

Next week begins what’s probably going to be a strong March. Next Friday is the first day of March and what comes out then? You guessed it! The long awaited release of Timothêe Chalamet’s Dune: Part Two! Two weeks ago, the film was tracking for an opening weekend of $65 million+. Since then, the hope got bigger with $80 million+ and if it’s early reviews which are already amazing at an unbelievable 97% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes are anything to go by, then it might go as high as $90 million. Even if it does open with $85 million, that’s still an awesome result for a movie directed by Denis Villeneuve. Heck, if it’s loud buzz and Oscar worthy reviews translate to people screaming “Best movie of 2024!”, it will make more on opening weekend than how much Dune: Part One made in its entire release.

One week afterwards is Dreamworks’ Kung Fu Panda 4. I haven’t heard much about how much it’s tracking for on opening weekend (I’m presuming it’s debut might sandwich between the first ($60 million in 2008) and second ($47 million in 2011) films) but it’s hoping to get families back to theaters (We haven’t gotten anything for them since Illumination’s leggy Migration). Then a break afterwards and then after that break is Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire. Pre release Tracking for that film comes out next week but I’m expecting bigger than Afterlife’s $44 million debut ($50 million+?). However the franchise is more of a domestic draw and always has been so this one oughta be interesting. And then the month ends with Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire which comes out Easter weekend (The same holiday weekend as the previous MonsterVerse movie, Godzilla vs Kong which opened to a then huge $31 million amid a $48 million five day debut in 2021).

With everyone back in theaters, I’m expecting this to be a breakout sequel to Godzilla vs Kong. I don’t think it’s gonna surpass the $93 million debut of the 2014 Godzilla movie but opening bigger than the $61 million debut of Kong: Skull Island seems doable. Anything below Godzilla: King of the Monsters ($47 million) would be written off as a disappointment. That being said, March will belong to Dune 2. So this whole thing is gonna be fun to watch. And I am looking forward to all four movies coming out next month so this will definitely be a fun one.

Dune: Part Two could get box office out of hibernation mode with $65 million+ (A movie news post)

Not only will March 1st be the beginning of a new month but it will also be the beginning of us getting big movies. As you may know, the box office hasn’t had a good weekend since last Christmas. However, in 3 weeks from now, the hotly anticipated Dune: Part Two will wake the box office up from its winter hibernation and has landed on pre release tracking this week. Warner Bros. for now is calling out $65 million or more. However, it could always overindex due to pent up demand for good and big movies and make more on opening weekend than how much Dune: Part One made in total ($108 million off a $41 million debut in 2021 during the “In theaters/Max at the same time strategy that affected most of Warner Bros’ slate that year).

But why is the studio expecting $65 million? Well, it’s because a Denis Villeneuve directed film, dummy! And it’s because of the long running time. Then again, Oppenheimer was 3 hours long, tracked for a $40 million-$50 million debut prior to release and was predicted to make “only” $49 million only to instead balloon to a bat out of hell $82 million in reality because of last summer’s Barbenheimer phenomenon and because it was helped out by Barbie. If the same deal happens to this film (Which is probably going to be even better than the first movie) except it’s because everyone wants to go to the movies, it’ll earn an insane $85 million-$95 million on opening weekend.

Even if it opens to $68 million, that’s still an amazing result for a movie directed by the same guy who gave us Blade Runner: 2049 and Arrival. However, don’t be surprised if it improves to $70 million-$75 million in the next few weeks. Still, $68 million would give it the biggest damn opening for any movie since Universal’s Five Nights at Freddy’s made a whopping $80 million back in October amid also being available on Peacock.

This may be a conversation for another day but next month is all about this film, Kung Fu Panda 4 (Which Universal might put on pre release tracking this time next week), Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (Which could break out from Afterlife) and Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (Odd title choice and also could break out from Godzilla vs Kong while ironically coming out the same Easter holiday weekend as GVK) teaming up to get the box office back on track.