Can Avatar: The Way of Water recapture the zeitgeist of the original? (A movie news post)

Disney has released the official opening weekend tracking for 20th Century Studios and James Cameron’s long awaited and highly anticipated Avatar: The Way of Water. And it’s tracking to earn the third largest opening of the year with $150 million-$175 million and also the largest non-superhero debut of the pandemic era comfortably ahead of Jurassic World: Dominion ($145 million). Right now the entire top five largest December openings consist of four Star Wars films and one MCU film with last year’s box office behemoth, Spider-Man: No Way Home leading the charge with $260 million.

Currently the biggest December opening not related to Marvel or Star Wars belongs to The Hobbit and while it will top that film’s $84 million Fri-Sun weekend total easy peasy, the biggest opening for that also removing any of the Middle Earth films from the equation is not the first Avatar film but believe it or not, Will Smith’s I Am Legend. Both films opened to $77 million in 2007 and 2009 but the latter film actually has that record by more than a few thousand while the former film tied it.

Now the sequel to the James Cameron mega blockbuster looks to destroy that record cause anything less than $150 million would be considered disappointing at this rate. Unless the movie is objectively boring and problematic, it could have long legs and be the only game in town until Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania in February 2023 since Shazam!: Fury of the Gods got moved to March 2023. However, topping the first movie seems unlikely as is topping Top Gun: Maverick for the year’s biggest grosser.

If it beats everyone as an analyst again like the first movie back in 2009/2010 and winds up being the biggest movie of the year and of all time, I’ll be shocked. As someone who needs to rewatch the first movie for the first Time in more than 10 years, I’m actually looking forward to the film and hopefully I will make more posts for the sequel as we inch closer to the film’s release.

Weekend estimates: Black Panther’s Shuri swipes November crown from Hunger Games’ Katniss Everdeen

Great reviews and astronomical word of mouth kept Black Panther: Wakanda Forever on track on Saturday ($56 million) and Sunday ($39 million) after earning $84 million on Friday. As for opening weekend, it earned $180 million which was only $2 million below expectations but still amazing regardless. It was also enough to obliterate the record for largest November opening previously held by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire with $158 million so there is absolutely nothing to complain about here.

Granted it fell only 33% from Friday to Saturday which is better than both Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (-36%) and Thor: Love and Thunder (-39%) and that’s because Veterans Day fell on a Friday and that kind of boosted its opening day number because most of the population was off from school. However, word of mouth was much better than those two films and while there might be people that wanted to see the movie but couldn’t do so on opening weekend because either because of other things or because of being rejected by sold out shows, a good 38% of the population actually wants to see the movie again in theaters.

That should help it in the long run and it should be on top of the chart until December 16th when Avatar: The Way of Water ends all its fun. Remember, Black Panther was #1 for five weeks back in 2018 so expect the same for Wakanda Forever. Also, keep an eye on the weekend actuals tomorrow afternoon as the film might go up because of strong word of mouth possibly kicking in. Wether it winds up topping Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness by the end of today according to the actuals is pure gravy.

As for the endgame, $500 million-$550 million seems possible. However, trouncing Top Gun: Maverick for biggest movie of the year seems unlikely. And with a global debut of $330 million, it could wind up with more than $900 million worldwide. I’m not completely ruling out $1 billion just yet as if the movie has decent legs, it may get there. However both Frozen films were the only November releases to ever get there.

It is indeed a great movie and it should have better legs than the previous two MCU chapters. Doctor Strange 2 and Thor 4 both fell 67% and 68% respectively in week 2. Let’s say Black Panther 2 falls 55% or 50% like a normal MCU film would. That would get it on pace to being the second biggest grossing film of the year. Black Widow fell 67% only because it was also available on Disney+ for $29.99. However, I’d argue that the Scarlett Johansson film should have dropped 29% like Top Gun: Maverick did but that’s a conversation for another day. Spider-Man: No Way Home fell 68% only because it’s second Friday landed on Christmas Eve.

Let’s say Black Panther: Wakanda Forever falls 57% in week two and then levels off afterwards like Minions: The Rise of Gru, that would get the film to close to $600 million domestic. Then again, it’s up to midweek numbers to see if it can pull a Joker on us and fall less than 40% next week. Your move, Avatar: The Way of Water!

Friday box Office results: Black Panther roars again with record $84 million

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever bursted out of the gate last night with a monster $84 million on opening day for a likely $175 million-$195 million debut depending on wether it frontloads from Friday or not. That’s actually bigger than the $75 million earned by Black Panther but only $6 million below the $90 million earned by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness earlier this year. The big question is wether or not it will beat that film’s $187 million opening weekend total for largest opening of the year.

Reviews are much better than the previous two MCU films and so is word of mouth. In fact, Cinemascore was an A which is below the A+ earned by Black Panther but then again, only four movies in the MCU have earned an A+ so it’s rare for a franchise installment to earn a grade that good. MCU films on average have earned an A or A- but mostly A’s so this is normal and not to mention, still amazing. Only Thor, Doctor Strange 2, Thor 4 and Eternals got lower than an A-.

Anyway, I’m sticking with my $182 million prediction for the weekend but I really hope it goes higher than that. Especially as someone who loved it and deemed it as the best superhero movie this year (Sorry, The Batman!).

Box Office: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever superhero fatigues to monster $28 million in Thursday previews

After earning a boffo $28 million in Thursday previews, one question will be answered throughout its entire opening weekend: Will Black Panther: Wakanda Forever top $200 million on opening weekend? Maybe. Just maybe. But anyway, that’s actually bigger than Black Panther ($25 million) which went on to earn $200 million on opening weekend. However, that movie came out on Presidents’ Day weekend 2018. With today being Veterans Day, Wakanda Forever’s opening day will be boosted by that alongside that Thursday previews number.

On one hand, that’s only $1 million below Thor: Love and Thunder ($29 million) and $8 million below Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36 million). On the other hand, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever has much better reviews (85% fresh) and word of mouth (A user score of 94% Fresh) so that could result in better opening weekend legs. The record for biggest November opening is currently held (For the next 48 hours) by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at $158 million. Disney is still expecting that record to be broken and since it beat that film in Thursday previews, that record will indeed fall.

The bigger question is: How much will it actually earn this weekend? $200 million or more for its debut wouldn’t shock me at this rate but for now, I’m sticking with my $182 million prediction. I might however have to higher up predictions by the time Friday’s numbers come in.

Black Panther looks to put moviegoing back on its two feet (A movie news post)

It’s been a long time since we got a real mega blockbuster in theaters. Warner Bros’ Black Adam May have been the most successful DCEU film since Shazam with over $300 million worldwide (And counting) off a $67 million debut but it wasn’t enough to save the overall box office. Even with Smile being a surprise $100 million grosser, movie theaters were light on quality product.

This week, all that is about to change with Marvel’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. The film is tracking for an opening weekend between $175 million and $185 million which would be more than enough to smash the November opening weekend record currently held by The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at $158 million. The biggest opening of the year record is currently held by Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness with $187 million. Although Doctor Strange 2 did open huge but fell like a stone afterwards due to divisive reactions (A B+ Cinemascore) and people saying it’s not the best MCU film.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever does actually have great reviews (87% fresh as of this writing) unlike Thor: Love and Thunder and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness saying that it’s an upswing from those two movies and is very emotional. That may give it better opening weekend legs and push the movie closer to $200 million for its debut. Actually, anything above $200 million would surprise me at this rate so I’m going with $182 million and then better legs than Multiverse of Madness in the end. And I also expect it to dominate the world until Avatar: The Way of Water ends all its fun.