Right now, after Thor: Love and Thunder earned $69 million on opening day, it’s going to be a tough call as to wether or not it will topple Jurassic World: Dominion and it’s $145 million debut from last month to earn the second largest opening of the year. Hopefully it’s mixed positive reviews and it’s merely okay B+ Cinemascore don’t prevent the film from topping $150 million. Although, it’s user score is 85% fresh indicating that the film isn’t all that bad. That said, you cannot complain about an MCU film that opens over/under Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 ($146 million) and scream “Slump!” Or “The MCU is dead!” Even with a likely final total of $350 million-$400 million (If it legs like The Batman), you complaining about the film’s performance is like complaining about someone hitting a home run in baseball. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness’ $950 million+ global total is a good example of this.
A $148 million debut is still a fantastic result for Disney but it will still be below expectations. It’s not like your gonna moan over this film and say that Kevin Feige is gonna hit the panic button and dial Scarlett Johansson and send her back to the franchise sooner rather than later.
On a side note: this will still mark only the third time in history that we get two $100 million+ openers in a row.
Mixed-positive reviews (69% Fresh) couldn’t stop the MCU as Thor: Love and Thunder earned a whopping $29 million in Thursday previews. It’s too early to tell if the movie will beat my $158 million prediction or breaks records for July or (At worst) winds up frontloaded. It all boils down to word of mouth from audiences. If Cinemascore is an A or A- and audiences like it more than the average critic, it will become the third MCU film in a row to beat my opening weekend prediction of $158 million. If it plays like a Twilight film, a Disney Star Wars film or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2, it gets to “just” $115 million-$135 million. If it plays like The Dark Knight Rises or Spider-Man: No Way Home, it gets to $155 million. If it plays like The Batman or Black Widow, it gets to a robust $175 million for the weekend. If it jumps from Ragnarok like Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 from Guardians of the Galaxy, it gets to a stupefying $191 million.
We’ll get a better idea of where it will land over the weekend but for now, I’m sticking with $158 million.
Minions: The Rise of Gru now has $154 million domestic (After a $13 million Wednesday which was down 22% from its monster $17 million Tuesday which was actually up from its $16 million Monday) and $288 million worldwide in just six days of release. It will eclipse Sing 2 ($161 million) to become the biggest animated film since Frozen 2 by the time you read this. As Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder hopes for $158 million in its debut weekend, I’m really hoping that the movie has a better hold than Minions which fell 57% from its $115 million debut to $49 million. Especially since it’s one of the best movies of the year and is way better than the original. Even if The Bad Guys is still the best animated film this year.
If it adds $60 million in week 2, good. But looking at the impressive mid week numbers, if it falls 29% like Top Gun: Maverick, it will add $71 million to its running tally or however much most people expected the movie to open with. If it plays like that film, it will be the second biggest animated film in America behind Incredibles 2. However, that’s unlikely. That said, with $4 billion worldwide, Despicable Me has surpassed Shrek, Ice Age and Toy Story as the biggest animated franchise ever.
Hilariously enough, despite being intended as a “kids movie” the film’s exit polls showed that there were more teens and young adults that showed up to the film than children and their parents. This could mean one of these two things. A. The movie is actually an indication of surprise franchise redemption (Its the best installment of the franchise since Despicable Me 2) or B. The teens and young adults that grew up with the franchise especially ones that saw the first movie back in 2010 and enjoyed it a lot when they were teenagers such as myself wanted to unironically show up to the film for nostalgic purposes.
That said, maybe ever since Sing 2 improved upon the first film (Which was already good to begin with), this could be the beginning of a new era for Illumination where they aim their films at not just kids but teens and grownups as well. #GentleMinions memes aside, the movie is actually a massive improvement over the original which played more like a toddler bait movie than an actual franchise flick whereas Rise of Gru plays like a great prequel to a great film (Think Scarlett Johansson’s (Excellent) Black Widow (Which honestly deserves sequel more than Zack Snyder’s Justice League) taking place in between Anthony and Joe Russo’s (Terrific) Captain America: Civil War and (The superb) Avengers: Infinity War or Gareth Edwards’ (Darn good) Rogue One taking place in between George Lucas’ (Criminally Underrated) Revenge of the Sith and (The phenomenal) A New Hope) that doesn’t retcon anything.
That Minions: The Rise of Gru played to the die hard nostalgic teens/young adults as opposed to children 12 or under impresses me. If it can thrive against Paws of Fury (Which had a trailer in front of almost every movie I saw this year including Top Gun: Maverick of all films!) and be the only game in town for animation until Uh… Disney’s Strange World, then it will end up with $1 billion worldwide.
Tomorrow (Or tonight if your going to the advance screening) sees the release of Marvel’s Thor: Love and Thunder. The movie is earning reviews that are good but below average for the MCU. At 69% fresh, it’s still better than Thor: The Dark World and Eternals (Which is (hopefully) the only MCU film to not earn good reviews). So far, with $15 million overseas, it is overcoming mixed-positive reviews. So hopefully, an A or A- Cinemascore will be assured if audiences like it more than the critics.
That said it’s expected to open to $300 million in global revenue so if it can open past $150 million in America, that would be a big win. It would be a bigger win if it earns $700 million or more in global revenue. Come back tomorrow for the Thursday previews results (If they’re big or good enough for me to report).
Despite rumblings of Netflix “dying”, “Losing subscribers” and “Laying off employees”, Stranger Things 4 broke records for the streaming service managing 1 billion hours among both volumes in over a month. Now it may or may not break the all time record held by Squid Game but that’s a conversation for another day. Same idea as Stranger Things 3 not preventing Spider-Man: Far From Home from being a billion dollar global hit for Sony, Stranger Things 4 couldn’t stop Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick from doing much better than pre-Covid expectations or Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru from beating even the most optimistic opening weekend predictions.
As someone who thinks that season 4 is the best season yet, I’m impressed that even with Maverick and Rooster and Gru and his Minions vacuuming up every paid dollar at the box office, it still broke records as the most viewed show on Netflix in over a month. Volume One’s First weekend (And the series premiere of Obi-Wan on Disney+) couldn’t stop Top Gun: Maverick’s fighter plane from flying much higher than the ground as the phenomenal Sequel to the 36 year old classic blasted off to a record $126 million opening amid a massive $160 million Memorial Day haul.
We weren’t sure how it was going to perform after that until it’s sophomore session came and went as it fell only 29% from its debut weekend to $90 million only to then continue overperforming against Jurassic World: Dominion, Elvis and Minions: The Rise of Gru (with Friday’s release of Thor: Love and Thunder being a real test to see if the Tom Cruise sequel can hold well against a Marvel film) and make a stupefying $1.1 billion in worldwide grosses thus far.
Volume Two’s first weekend couldn’t prevent Minions: The Rise of Gru from avoiding franchise fatigue as the much better than expected sequel to the lousy 2015 flick opened to best case scenario numbers with a boffo $107 million debut amid a record $123 million Independence Day haul. Now when a fourth season of a zeitgeist capturing phenomenon from 2016 has the first seven episodes premiere on the same weekend as the long awaited sequel to a 36 year old pop culture movie and the last two episodes premiere on the same weekend as the 5th installment of a 12 year old animated franchise, there are no problems at all.
Again, like Harry Potter, Star Wars and the MCU, people watch Stranger Things not because of the plot but rather because of their favorite characters and what would happen next with them. Like for example, nobody wanted to see Avengers: Endgame because it was about a team of superheroes finding six infinity stones to bring their beloved ones back and fight a tyrant. No. They wanted to see Endgame because they wanted to see Iron Man snap away Thanos or Captain Marvel save Iron Man in space. Because the characters is what got people into these franchises in the first place. Like how many people wanted to see Iron Man back in 2008 because it was about a billionaire who trades his heart for an arc reactor and creates a bunch of suits to save the world?
The show is a good example of ripping off something only to become something that everyone cares about, same idea as Fast and the Furious ripping off Point Break only to make $6 billion worldwide in 10 movies thus far (Counting Hobbs and Shaw). And also, when you make more money off the “first” Harry Potter as opposed to making a movie that tries to be the “next” Harry Potter, it goes to show that the first Harry Potter will always better a bigger hit than the next Harry Potter that tries its best to reflect the success of the first Harry Potter. Hence why Artemis Fowl came extremely late to the party in 2020 and skipped theaters only to be panned by critics and general audiences all around because it was trying to be the next Harry Potter and failed.
After strong performances from Top Gun: Maverick, Jurassic World: Dominion, Elvis and Minions: The Rise of Gru, Thor: Love and Thunder is hoping to continue the winning streak and make up for Disney’s Lightyear blunder. Reviews are good but not great however, it’s looking like $140 million-$167 million for opening weekend. If you don’t remember, I predicted Spider-Man: No Way Home and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness to both open with $158 million only to then open with $260 million and $187 million respectively and for Thor: Love and Thunder, that’s the exact number I’m going with. If it becomes the third Marvel film in a row to make more than expected, then I’ll be darned. And I would be extremely shocked if the movie made more on opening weekend than the original Thor’s entire theater run. Come back on Friday for Thursday previews results, Saturday for opening day results and Sunday for weekend estimates.
Throughout the year of 2022, we have had 5 movies open to $100 million or more which is amazing for the moviegoing marketplace. In March, Warner Bros. The Batman opened to $134 million while May had Marvel’s Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness and Paramount’s Top Gun: Maverick debut to $187 million and $126 million respectively. A month later, Universal’s Jurassic World: Dominion began with $145 million and now this past weekend, Universal and Illumination’s (Better than expected) Minions: The Rise of Gru did the unthinkable and avoided franchise fatigue with $107 million in its first three days.
Now the question is: Will Thor: Love and Thunder make it six? According to Disney, the answer is expected to be yes as they are expecting $140 million-$167 million this coming weekend. Now the most likely case scenario is $150 million or more. I’m expecting $158 million for opening weekend but more on that later this week. Now let’s say the movie actually gets better reviews than Multiverse of Madness at 85% fresh or higher (Which could be possible), opens bigger than that film and makes $200 million or more on opening weekend. That would shock me.
After Pixar’s (halfway decent) Lightyear bellyflopped, Disney is hoping Thor: Love and Thunder marks their second big hit this year after Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. And no. This was not a box office prediction post. I will post a box office prediction post sometime this week.
Thanks to decent reviews and strong word of mouth from audiences, Minions: The Rise of Gru freeze rayed all expectations and earned a massive $108 million over the weekend. For now, in terms of animated openers, it’s on par with Shrek 2 but don’t be surprised if it winds up higher when the actuals kick in. It will also earn $127 million over the entire Fourth of July holiday. Furthermore, that is a record for biggest Fourth of July opening ahead of Transformers: Dark of the Moon ($97 million/$115 million). So suck it, Michael Bay! After earning $48 million on Friday, it will plunge 32% to $32 million on Saturday and then again by 15% to an estimated $27 million on Sunday alongside an extra $19 million on the Fourth of July. If Thor: Love and Thunder overperforms this coming week (Which is obviously possible), then this will be only the third time in history where we have two $100 million+ openers in a row After Shrek the Third and then Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($121 million and then $114 million in 2007) and Incredibles 2 and then Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($182 million and then $148 million in 2018). Part of this performance has to do with surprise franchise redemption and with over $200 million worldwide as of this weekend, $1 billion may be likely. Speaking of records, Stranger Things 4 will be the most watched show on Netflix according to the streaming service.
Even with Minions: The Rise of Gru exceeding expectations, Top Gun: Maverick just won’t die as it fell another 14% to $25 million for a likely cume of $571 million by the end of Monday for Tom Cruise’s 60th birthday. That said, the film already has over $1.1 billion worldwide and will get to $600 million domestic next week or the week after. The most interesting test this coming week is if it can survive the wrath of Thor during its possible final week in the top three. If so, then it will end its run as Paramount’s biggest grossing film ever (Counting Titanic’s 3D reissue from 10 years ago). If not, then it will end its run just above Star Wars: The Last Jedi and The Avengers. Honestly, nobody expected the movie to do this well. On a side note, it is the biggest movie that isn’t named Spider-Man: No Way Home to not play in china which is even more impressive.
Last week’s winner, Elvis fell from first to third with $19 million down 39% From its $31 million debut for a $67 million 10 day cume. It’ll be interesting to see when the film can get to $100 million and I’m pretty sure the strong word of mouth and holiday are the reasons it’s holding well this week.
Jurassic World: Dominion was no chump either earning $15 million (Down 41%) for $335 million by the end of Monday. Worldwide is currently at $828 million. Universal won’t have a hissy fit if it ends it’s run below $1 billion because it has made enough to probably make another trilogy or a spin off. Besides, they’ll be happy with Minions: The Rise of Gru possibly ending with $1 billion+ and this film ending with $900 million+.
The Black Phone rounded out the top five with $12 million and a cume of nearly $50 million by the end of the holiday. Had the movie opened with $12 million, it would have still been a solid little hit. But since it earned $23 million last week, it’s more than that.
Just when I thought Minions: The Rise of Gru was gonna suffer franchise fatigue, it actually overperformed. Yesterday, the film earned a monster $48 million on opening day alone which was much better than the $26 million I expected. That marks the third largest opening day ever for an animated film ahead of the original Minions ($46 million) and Toy Story 4 ($47 million) and sits only behind nostalgic monster sequels Finding Dory ($54 million) and Incredibles 2 ($71 million).
This is an impressive result all around. Remove the $10.7 million it earned on Thursday and it’s pure Friday number is $37 million which was still higher than expected. I’m pretty sure part of this has to do with the better than expected reviews (71% fresh). Add in the A Cinemascore (And it’s user score of 92% fresh) and this movie is a clear sign of franchise redemption meaning we’re all going to have to be more kind to the idea of us getting Despicable Me 4 in a few years.
A $110 million/$130 million weekend will only give it an opening just $5 million lower than Minions (Same idea as Colin Trevorrow’s (Very good) Jurassic World: Dominion opening just $3 million lower than J.A. Bayona’s (Very bad) Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom) but do not be surprised if the surprisingly strong word of mouth drives it higher than the original Minions.
And in case you were wondering: No. Netflix’s terrific Stranger Things 4 Volume 2 did not put the hurt on the film’s performance akin to (the equally terrific) Season 4 volume 1 not preventing Top Gun: Maverick to overperform and Season 3 not preventing Spider-Man: Far From Home from being a billion dollar hit.
Okay. After Universal and Illumination’s Minions: The Rise of Gru earned a stupefying $10.7 million in Thursday previews, I’m starting to think that my $67 million 3 day prediction may be too low. In terms of family movies of recent, it’s way better than the $5 million earned by Lightyear and even better than the $6 million earned by Sonic the Hedgehog 2. As for the franchise, it’s much bigger than the $4 million earned by Despicable Me 3 and (surprisingly) the $6 million earned by Minions. As for the elite animated openers, it’s bigger than the $8 million and $9 million earned by Frozen 2 and Finding Dory respectively but understandably lower than Toy Story 4 and Incredibles 2 ($12 million and $18 million). Despite beginning as early as 2pm, I’m pretty sure part of this better than expected result has to do with the reviews which in turn are better than expected and at 69% fresh.
Now now I know what your thinking: How much is it going to actually earn over the entire Fourth of July weekend? Good question. As of right now, it is looking like $85 million-$110 million/$95 million-$120 million for its debut. Even if it plays like a live action blockbuster, it will still destroy all expectations. This result is either because people aren’t sick of Despicable Me and they actually were looking forward to this movie or it could be because Gru and the Minions are marquee characters. Maybe it’s a little bit of both.
Because of this, I’m upping my prediction to $96 million/$116 million. I know it sounds crazy for a film I literally thought it was gonna have the lowest opening in the franchise since the best film in the franchise, but it’s looking likely that it will make way more in three days than it was expected to make in four. However, don’t be surprised if the movie cracks $100 million in 3 days and secures an opening bigger than the first Minions film.
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